Charles Hall from Rider Research had some interesting thoughts to share with me about what we as tech enthusiasts should know about the future of TV. "The bigger question will be What is TV?" Hall said. "Is it only what comes over-the-air and from the cable and satellite TV services? Or, does it include videos that are posted on the Internet? What about online movie services that allow consumers to download movies and TV shows? Is it only what is viewed on a TV set or does it include video that is seen on a PC or mobile phone? The definition of what TV is will be greatly enlarged."

Speaking of mobile phones, what's the future of TV on cell phones? "Mobile phones already makes calls," Hall said. "They take pictures, play music, and allow users access to email and instant messaging. Consumers can download video clips of news and sports highlights, plus videos such as comedy or Webisodes of dramas that are made for watching on mobile devices. Will mobile phones give users the ability to watch TV, play back videos that are on the DVR at home and watch user-generated videos from the Internet? Mobile phones will be able to receive a few channels live—sports, news, entertainment channels such as music concerts and some popular TV shows. Users will also be able to timeshift—copy video from their DVRs and PCs—and even placeshift live TV from their home to their mobile device."

How will these changes alter TV content itself? Will we really have more niche content? How about user-generated content? "The amount of local content will increase as consumers are able to post the videos they've recorded on their mobile phone to a Web site. User-generated content is a niche market, with most consumers getting their fill after about 5 or 10 minutes at a time. User-generated content is best at filling short gaps such as watching on a mobile phone while waiting in line. For longer-length entertainment, it's hard to beat professionally produced content. TV-length and full-length shows will always be with us. They're not going away. What will change is where and on what devices they're viewed."

Video On Demand is pretty huge. Is it sounding the death knell of movie-rental shops? "Yes—and the death knell for theaters, unless they diversify their offerings. Who wants to drive to a DVD rental store when they can watch it on demand? The increased price of gas gives consumers another reason to avoid another trip through the traffic. People who use Video On Demand or who can watch a downloaded movie on their TV increasingly prefer to stay at home. The exception is movies that are best enjoyed in a theater—those with special video and sound effects. Theaters will be forced to offer other attractions such as food service while watching. There'll be fewer seats but they'll bring in more revenue. Why not? You can't get table service at home."

What are your thoughts about the future of TV?

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I think that the future is IP TV. Have you ever looked at all of the features that today's Cable Boxes could provide? I am a Comcast subscriber with an Motorola HD DVR box. The features that are currently available include On Demand, several HD channels, and HD DVR capabilities. The box has a 160GB Hard Drive, which is pretty adequate for now. What is interesting about this box is not what it currently offers, but what it could offer. There are a plethora of connections on the box (ethernet, usb, firewire, HDMI, PC Car slot, etc.) that are barely used. Internally, the box includes a cable modem and a base OS. It is easy to imagine this cable box becoming the hub for home entertainment. It could replace the existing cable modem I need for highspeed internet. If it was attached to the network (wired or wireless) it could serve up content to other network attached cable boxes and PCs in my house. If i have recorded a show in the living room, why can't I watch it on the bedroom cable box? Of course it could also browse the internet or be used as an e-mail client. This leads me to the IP TV importance. This box can easily be set up to serve content directly from the internet. Today we are stuck with a schedule for TV viewing, with only some programming available ON Demand. What if everything was On Demand? The cable company just becomes an IP portal (they have always been your content aggregator) to the various sites that TV shows are posted (Yahoo, YouTube, Network sites, etc.). The average Joe might not even notice much of a difference if the cable company offered a menu with an arbitrary time schedule on it. I would not have thought that this would happen in the near future, but with the speed that Networks are suddenly offering their programming on the web, this isright around the corner. John -October 18, 2006 I always have to laugh when people talk about the "death knell" of anything regarding TV, movies, music, etc. When cassette recorders came out, they proclaimed the eminent death of LPs because people could record off the radio or off each other's LPs. When VCRs came out they proclaimed the death of ad-based television because people could time-shift and skip the commercials. When movies came out on video and on DVD they proclaimed the death of the movie theater because people could watch the movies at home shortly after they left the theater. Here we are years (decades) later and there are still artists selling their music, very good television supported by ads, and movie theaters are still packed on Friday and Saturday nights. (I blame the movie slump in recent years on the studios producing crap rather than piracy eating into profits). I firmly believe that video-on-demand and portability are the future of television, but it will be in addition to regular sit-down-and-watch-on-a-predetermined-schedule rather than a replacement. There will still be plenty of people who "like it the old fasioned way" to keep anything like movie theaters or video rental stores from dying off. Dave -October 18, 2006 I recently went to a local Movie Tavern to watch a movie with my family. I am not much of a movie goer; I am of the type that prefers to wait for a movie release to come out on cable, as justification for the cable bill. But at the Movie Tavern, I did enjoy a pitcher of beer, some fried mushrooms, and a roast beef sandwich while watching the movie. The prices are in line with what I would spend somewhere else, and it was a nice change from the usual "dinner (at one place) AND a movie (at another place)". The only complaint is that some of the patrons for-go the standard in-theater courtesy and revert to restaurant style behavior (talking, cell phones etc.) But you cannot expect much from the un-washed masses, now can you? I agree with John about IPTV. That is what I am looking forward to, and AT&T U-Verse has been deployed in a San Antonio TX pilot market. Being an AT&T fan-boy, I have already called and berated the poor American on the phone about deployment in my city. But the service currently does not support Hi-Def. I told them it has to support HD to make it into my home. They said they expect HD service around the first of the year. But a combination DSL Gateway, Network Router, and HDTV IPTV provider device is something I definetly want. James A. -October 18, 2006 I think TV is going to be around for a long time, but content is very poor. When people can pick what they want to watch, these other channels will die off. I think we will have to pay a little more, but we won't have to watch all the crap! Alex Chavarin -October 25, 2006 READER COMMENTS: We want to hear what you have to say about this article!     Acceptable Use Policy Your Comments (required): Your email is only used if our editors need to contact you. It is not used or stored for any other purpose, nor posted with your comments. Enter the text from the image below Please refresh the page if you have trouble reading this text.